Clearly we are not always accurate in predicting students' learning. Of equal concern, though, is the certainty of our belief that students are learning. The roots of these cognitive errors may lie in the common phenomenon of overconfidence bias that social psychologists have written about extensively. People (and that includes professors) tend to be more confident than correct when assessing the accuracy of their beliefs and judgments. On the bright side, there are ways of managing this overconfidence bias.
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